by Konstantin Othmer

When David Sklansky first came out with his hold’em hand system many years ago, he changed the game. The ratings gave all players a framework for making decisions.

Over the years, the hand groupings have been revised slightly, but there has not been another breakthrough of such magnitude since then. I’ve talked to many players who somehow believe that by further revising these hand groupings, they can improve their play.

The hand groupings are a very powerful concept, but unfortunately, they take things only so far. Using them can turn a novice into a reasonable player in short order. But to advance to the next level, you have to realize the strengths and limitations of a rating system. The goal of this article is to discuss the assumptions underlying the hand ratings and to discuss the ideas necessary to take your game to the next level.

The first thing you have to understand is that these hand ratings assume a particular game with specific types of players. The ratings and the suggestions surrounding them can lead to success in a broad spectrum of games, but to optimize your winnings you must factor in a number of other variables.

It’s been said many times before, “poker is a people game.” While not as colorful, it’s probably more illustrative to say “poker is a game of situations.” Clearly, the other people in the game factor into the situational analysis, but so do the cards you hold and, in tournaments, the payoff structure. A few examples will help make the point.

Situation #1

You’re at the final table of a tournament. There are six players left, and the prize money distribution is as follows:

A total of $20,000 in chips are in play and the blinds are $200-$400. All players have about an equal number of chips. You are one off the button. The small blind and big blind are both very tight players and rarely defend their blinds. You have a reasonably tight image and have not played a pot in the last two rounds. You are dealt 7-2 offsuit. What do you do?

This probably sounds like a good situation to steal the blinds by raising, but there is more data to be had. Has the player on the button looked at his hand? What about the players in the blinds? From watching these three players in previous hands, are they going to play?

Let’s say we believe both the player on the button and the player in the small blind are likely to fold. The player in the big blind doesn’t look at his cards until it’s his turn to act. This is annoying for two reasons: it slows the game down and we can’t get free information. Oh well. Now what?

There is still more to consider.

It sure seems as if our opportunity to win this pot is probably pretty good (even though we hold 7-2 offsuit), but we want to figure out the best way to do it. If we raise, it’s quite likely the blind will fold and we’re done with it. A raise costs us $800 — almost one-third of our chips. If the blind calls, we are in a tricky situation. If the blind reraises (given that he’s a tight player), we probably have to fold since the reraise forces us to commit nearly one-half our chips to this pot, probably not a good idea with a 7-2 offsuit.

Interestingly, a call can be a good play here (particularly if we are fairly certain the small blind will fold). After we call, the blind will look at his cards and we hope we can pick up some information from this. Many players in the blind’s situation will mentally give up the pot unless they hit something reasonable on the flop. Their logic is that you would have raised if you were trying to steal, so you must have something.

In this case you are in a very strong situation. Just by calling, you have taken control of the hand. Many players will give you credit for a stronger hand when you call than when you raise under these circumstances. In most cases, you are in the perfect situation to get a very easy read on the blind. Likely, you can win this hand with a bet on the flop or on the turn. And if the player in the blind gets lucky, you should be able to read that and get away from the hand with a minimal loss.

And, of course, there’s the scenario where you get a very lucky flop and your deceptive play leads to winning a large pot.

Situation #2

Same tournament, but this time you have only $200 left. A fairly loose player is in the big blind and goes all-in for his last $300. The rest of the players all have fairly large stacks. The player under the gun is fairly tight and has a lot of chips, and just calls. Everyone folds to you. You hold A-A.

With $800 in the pot (of which you could win only $600), this is a bit of a tricky situation.

With the tournament payoff structure, the difference between sixth and fifth place is $400. Likely, even if the loose player wins the hand, he will go all-in at least once more before your blind. The small blind is almost certain to call for another $100. Even with a four-handed pot, your aces are a large favorite, but there is also a significant chance you will lose. If you fold, there is probably a 65 percent chance or higher the loose player will be eliminated, and even if he wins, there is probably another 50 percent chance he will be eliminated before your blind. Combined, this means there is more than an 80 percent chance that you can win an extra $400 in prize money by folding.

If you call, the only chance you have of winning the extra $400 is by winning the hand. If both you and the loose player are eliminated, he will get the higher finish since he had more money at the beginning of the hand. Against three opponents, your chances of winning are probably close to 50 percent.

If you do win, you will have $800 in chips, but you are still the short stack by quite a bit. The blinds will be coming soon, and you will have to win another hand very quickly to have a chance at one of the larger prizes.

Based on this analysis, the correct play is probably to fold. It’s not 100 percent clear-cut, but in any case, it’s a close decision.

The point is that the situation surrounding a hand is often much more important than the cards. Given the right circumstances, 7-2 offsuit can be a reasonable hand (even to call with before the flop!) and A-A should be mucked.

These situations are a bit extreme, but factors that have dramatic effects come up often in normal ring games. A K-Q suited is a great hand if you are up against a Q-10 offsuit, but a terrible hand if your opponent holds K-K.

As you can see, your decision on how to play your cards depends on the players, the betting, your position, tells, and other factors as much (or in many cases more than) the cards you hold. Further analysis of refined hand groupings will bring minimal returns.

This article focused on the effect tournament structure and your playing position has on the value of a situation. A future article will discuss how opponent playing styles impact your hand value. 

“I have almost a photographic memory about situations in poker, so I don’t need to go home and write things down, but I think that it’s a good practice for most players. After your session, go home and think about the game and the players. During an eight-hour session, 30 to 40 key hands will be played. You should be able to remember these hands. Keep a little book on all the players, what they did in these key hands … because they’re going to do the same thing the next time you play them. And you’re going to be the recipient of their generosity, of their playing patterns.”

From ‘Championship No-Limit & Pot-Limit Hold’em’ by T.J. Cloutier

Poker Digest Magazine – Volume 1 Number 1